My Hypothesis

The break up and civil war of the United States is not a subject to take lightly. It is a very real and possible scenario that is at this moment coming into effect though numerous political and racial strains and conflicts.
This is my personal hypothesis and nothing more:

Government breakdown

Racial tensions: 

• Ethnic groups (Christian Radicalists, Islamic Extremists etc.)
• Ethnic Predgidice allegations. (The beating of a Moslem child that attracts large media attention for instance)
• Ethnic conflict – either minor clashes of rivaling groups or large racial incidents

Political instability

• Ultra-Nationalist group(s) (either Right or leftist)
• Loyalist, government supporting

Play out:

• Ultra-Nationalist uprising, in one form of another. (similar to Yugoslavia)
• Corrupt Military and political figures will give access to equipment and help to eliminate initial resistance and premature crackdown by government agencies via disinformation operations.
• Police forces will fail due to overwhelming power of aggression from Ultra-Nationalist supporters who have gained access to superior fire power.
• Police forces will surcome to corruption and separation due to differing ideologies and racial lines.
•  Non corrupt government military and civilian agencies will attempt to quell the Ultra-Nationalists.
• Government break down due to infiltration causes loyalists to establish their own entity against the Nationalists.
• Politicians will become targets for Ultra-Nationalist agenda. A mass storming of the White House for instance. Surviving Politicians will be exiled.
• War will develop between the new factions in most Northern states and cities. There will not be a clear boundary like the first Civil war, the uprising will have different chapters in each city of each state, primarily in the north but cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco could also be affected with varying degrees of severity.
• Loss of communication to the southern states: This could provoke Mexican Gorilla fighting to spread rapidly, causing the opening of the border and the influx of refugees from Mexico.
• Southern states will erupt into ethnically charged violence between white English-speaking, Hispanic and Blacks.
• Sectarian violence from external parties such as street gangs, racial groups and organized crime syndicates such as biker gangs and the Mafia. However these will either be assimilated into the two primary factions or eliminated all together. There is a very slim chance that one will become more powerful, but this would not last anyway due to the political origin of the entire conflict.
• Conquest by the Ultra Nationalists will give them territory in their control and the ability to set up pseudo-capitols.
• Continued recruitment from both sides and the attacks of the Ultra Nationalist groups will create recognizable borders. However these are not likely to simply sepperate the country in two, rather they will be surrounding the areas of total or near total control from either side. Simply put, there will be pockets of territory wherever a faction has gained control, primarily these will be around minor cities and towns.
• Refugees will migrate from every major or minor city to loyalist capitols or to Canada. (Loyalists will accept refugees as they were formed in the image of the government before its collapse.)
• Loyalists will eventually counter attack creating large battles in major cities not yet fully controlled by either faction. These will definitely involve the use of heavy weapons and armor (tanks) and the organized useage of other military hardware (Artillery etc.)
• Once the fighting starts the chances of it stopping quickly are close to none. The Prolonged violence is a definate fact as groups struggle to gain any form of land. There will be no negotiations due to the intence hatred between each faction.
• As the conflict progresses the fighting will become less organised as resources dwindle. It will resemble that of gang turf wars where groups will fight viciously over small areas of land in a city area. The remaining population will become desperate due to the lack of food, medical supplies and water, depending on the area.
• fighting may begin in some of the less organised groups, or the ones with the lowest moral due to lack of ammunition, food and medical supplies.
• Stale mate will occur, if it hasnt already. Troops will run out of ammo, food and water. This is most likely to occur in a cold winter, not dissimmilar to Stalingrad in WWII. Troops will freeze and starve. This is just those who have some access to food, refugees will be far worse off and will often be attacked for food and other essentials be bandits and even loyalists if the situation becomes so dire.
• Stalingrad could be associated with much of the northern cities as the conflict progresses, such places as Detroit, New York, Chicargo and Seattle are a few major cities. Hight casulty rates, lack of food, ammo and reasonable clothing will all be a factor. People will freeze, stalve or just get shot one day by some sniper hiding in a window. There will be little hope for the diseased and the wounded who, due to lack of supplies and anyone with medical experience will most likely die an agonising and prolonged death.
• A Loyalist psudo-capitol will most likely be a refugee collection area, command base and depot. This will most likely be on the coast to avoid encircling